Irish house prices will rise by 4.5% over the next 12 months, according to estate agents who are members of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI). This is up on the 1% increase which SCSI agents forecast for 2024 back in January.
According to the latest SCSI Mid-Year Market Monitor released in August 2024, almost half of agents (46%) believe the key factor influencing house prices over the next 12 months will be the supply of new housing. Eighty-two per cent of agents believe current residential property prices are expensive or very expensive, while 17% believe they are fair value.
When asked where they believe we are in the market cycle, 77% of respondents believe prices are increasing but will level off soon – up from 43% last year.
Gerard O’Toole, Vice President of the SCSI, said the clear message from the report was the urgent need to increase supply.
“Seventy-five per cent of agents reported low stock levels, up from 71% twelve months ago, highlighting the ongoing issue of insufficient supply. Our members are seeing the impact of the lack of supply on the ground and believe this shortage will continue until annual completion levels ramp up significantly. A year ago, 35% of agents identified the lack of supply as the main issue for the price movements, now that number is 46%.”
“The other main factors, which our members believe are influencing price movements include the state of the economy, interest rates and the availability of credit, access to schemes supporting house purchases such as Help to Buy and changes in the levels of immigration and emigration. The findings show a slight decrease in concerns about interest rates since the last report, reflecting the ECB’s recent decision to reduce rates.”
“One area of concern for agents is an increase in the number of sales agreed but not proceeding to completion. They believe delays caused by planning irregularities, non-compliance with building regulations as well as delays regarding probate and accessing property deeds, are continuing to pose challenges.”
