USA: The higher rate environment is projected to dampen U.S. housing activity this year, according to the Federal National Mortgage Association, also known as Fannie Mae. In its latest forecast, the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group expects overall economic growth to slow and mortgage rates to end the year near 7 percent. As a result, they expect a slight slowdown in housing activity through 2024 compared to their previous forecast, not exactly the news that aspiring homebuyers were waiting for.
The ESR Group’s full-year 2024 real GDP outlook is unchanged at 1.8 percent, as underlying growth in the first quarter remained solid but still appears on track to slow as the year progresses. Household income growth has not kept pace with strong consumer spending and personal outlays on debt interest remain high, suggesting to the ESR Group that the higher interest rate environment will eventually weigh on future consumption. Combined with potential softening in payroll employment growth, the ESR Group expects inflation to decelerate through 2024 but remain sticky enough in the near term to prevent a Federal Reserve rate hike until September.
“The question our economics team is asked most frequently by industry participants remains where we think mortgage rates are headed,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “For now, we see rates remaining closer to 7 percent through the end of the year – before trending downward in 2025 – but note potential downside to that forecast given recent actual movements in rates” he added.
“Our consumer survey suggests that households who are paying attention to the housing market continue to take a wait-and-see approach. This is consistent with our latest housing forecast, which does not foresee a dramatic change in activity until affordability improves.”
However, with active home sale listings now up approximately 30 percent compared to a year ago, the ESR Group believes sizable declines in home sales are unlikely and continues to forecast a modest upward drift in existing home sales over the forecast horizon, particularly compared to the historically low sales levels of the previous two years.
The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.
